According to Dr. Jeff Master's blog at 3:40 pm GMT today, "Wednesday’s [October 5, 2016] latest 00Z run of the European model and 06Z run of the GFS model predicted that Matthew would turn to the northeast and then east on Saturday, keeping the storm several hundred miles south of the coast of North Carolina."
Following is the latest Public Notice from Hyde County:
HURRICANE MATTHEW ADVISORY #3
October 5, 2016 12 p.m.
Hyde County Monitoring Progress of Hurricane Matthew
Most forecast models now predicting the Atlantic high pressure ridge will keep Matthew to the South. The latest possible track shows the storm turning east into the Atlantic before it reaches the North Carolina coast, according to the National Hurricane Center. The North Carolina coastline could be spared a direct hit from Matthew if the forecast track issued by the National Hurricane Center holds over the next three days.
While the latest path of Matthew is much more favorable, state and local officials warn that Hyde County will still be subject to storm impacts. A State of Emergency remains in effect for Hyde County, N.C. The Hyde County Emergency Services Department is continuing to monitor Hurricane Matthew. This is a storm that should be taken very seriously for its potential to result in catastrophic impacts for portions of the area. Regardless of the exact track or strength there is the potential for dangerous conditions across the entire area.
A mandatory evacuation for Ocracoke Island visitors began this morning at 5 a.m., Wednesday, October 5, 2016. Even though the forecast has changed significantly, the visitor evacuation orders are still necessary and has proceeded smoothly according to the NC DOT Ferry Division.
While Hyde County Officials are considering a suspension of the evacuation order issued for resident and non-resident property owners, this order will remain in place until the forecast becomes more consistent. Resident and non- resident property owners, vendors and critical infrastructure providers will be permitted to travel to and from the island today, Wednesday, October 5, 2016. Please be prepared to show documentation of the aforementioned statuses to gain access to the island. Individuals wishing to gain access to the island will need to have the appropriate reentry tag or they will be required to produce evidence of property ownership or residency. If a suspension of evacuation proclamation is approved, the entry/re-entry priorities being enforced will be modified.
A mandatory evacuation will remain in effect for Ocracoke Island property owners until deemed otherwise and will begin at 5 a.m., Thursday, October 6, 2016. Only emergency personnel and vendors will be granted access to Ocracoke Island on Thursday, October 6, 2016. Hyde County will continue to monitor the situation and will make decisions on suspension of this evacuation order as the forecast path becomes more certain.
All ferries to and from Ocracoke Island will run as scheduled on Wednesday, October 5, 2016 and Thursday, October 6, 2016. No ferries will run on Friday, October 7, 2016, but this may be reconsidered if the forecast remains consistent. Visitors are encouraged to evacuate as early as possible to ensure safe travels to their intended destinations. Residents and non-resident property owners are encouraged to monitor the situation and continue to prepare for deteriorating weather conditions and possible evacuation slated to begin in the morning.
A decision on the issuance of mandatory evacuation orders for the Hyde County Mainland is now less likely, but again is subject to forecast. Information regarding mainland evacuations will be communicated if necessary.
Closely monitor the forecast for Matthew in the coming days, and be prepared to take action to protect yourself and your property. Secure your home. Board up windows and secure lawn furniture, mowers, hanging plants, trash cans and other loose items in the yard. Check on your neighbors, particularly the elderly or disabled.
Make plans now for how you will deal with the potential threats and impacts. Your plans and preparedness measures should include:
Please be advised, flood waters may contain sewage and other harmful contaminants. Keep children and pets out of flood waters.
Please maintain awareness and monitor for further updates from Hyde County Public Information.
Public Information Officer